電影訊息
魔鬼經濟學--Freakonomics

魔鬼经济学/魔鬼经济学

6.3 / 7,745人    93分鐘 | USA:85分鐘

導演: Heidi Ewing 艾力克斯吉伯尼 塞斯高登 Rachel Grady Eugene Jarecki 摩根史柏路克
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我呼吸的空氣

2015-03-20 02:14:46

作為一部紀錄片還是比較失敗的


這個片子最大缺點就是太散,總共有6個導演,5個製作團隊來完成:
1. Intro & Transitional Segments (including Real Estate, Parenting, Cheating, Cause & Effect, Incentives) 1 director
2. A Roshanda by Any Other Name 1 director
3. Pure Corruption 1 director
4. It’s Not Always A Wonderful Life 1 director
5. Can you bribe a 9th grader to succeed? 2 directors

下面為主要內容及觀感,有興趣的可以挑相應電影片段來看:
0. Real Estate
Does real estate agent really represent your interest?
Incentives matter!!! If you can figure out what people’s incentives are, you have a good chance of guessing how they are going to behave.

1. Parenting (4』26』』-)
Levitt explains what he does in research: to figure out tricky ways to get a causality. There’s a difference between causality and correlation.

2. A Roshanda by Any Other Name
(莎翁名句:A rose by any other name would smell as sweet.)
(出自原書第六章)
Does name matter? Does name define your destiny?

Resume experiment: African American names vs. White names
View point: Name may not define your destiny but it can dictate the ways other ppl perceive you.

3. Cheating
(3&4出自原書第一章:教師和相撲運動員有何相似之處?)
Teachers could cheat.

4. Pure Corruption (24』20』』-47』48』』)
Corruption in the Sumo World with reference to Bernie Madoff (corruption in the realm of high finances)
        *誤譯:S.E.C (not S.C.C)
        很像犯罪紀實片,有點故弄玄虛之感。本可以獨立成片的題材,過短而語嫣不詳。日本文化對於西方觀眾/讀者本身具有神秘吸引力。也提到了日本和美國媒體的self-censorship,有一定自我批判的意味。

        Levitt: The only way to combat corruption is to change rules and undo corruption incentives, unleash more investigative reporters and to develop strong protections for whistle blowers.

5. Cause & Effect (47』49』』-49』10』』)
Does ice cream cause polio?

6. It’s Not Always a Wonderful Life (出自原書第四章)
Reasons why crime rates drop considerably in the 1990s?
觀感: 全片最有意思和最令人驚奇的發現。

6 most popular explanations (with authors』 verdict): More innovative policing (0%), harsher criminal policing (30%), changes in the crack market (15%), increase gun control, a strong economy, more police on the street (the last three about 10% in total).
(具體怎麼得到這些數字的沒有解釋,這也許是有經濟學家批評兩位作者是在描述計量經濟學的原因,原書中是不是也沒有解釋?)

Almost half of the drop left unexplained. Levitt’s answer: Roe vs. Wade (the legalized abortion in 1970s)
Unwanted children were not born…
「Unintended consequence of legalized abortion」

關於這個結論的爭論(譯自維基百科):
書出版之後Boston Fed的經濟學家指出Levitt原論文中的統計錯誤,改正這些錯誤後不能得到墮胎合法化是犯罪率降低原因的結論。Levitt回應,Boston Fed經濟學家的改正由於存在嚴重的衰減偏誤(attenuation bias)也是有缺陷的,改正自己原文的錯誤後,流產和犯罪之間的聯繫較弱,但仍然統計顯著。Boston Fed的那兩位經濟學家很快提供了反駁:即使使用Levitt建議的方法來分析數據,該數據不顯示流產率和犯罪率呈正相關關係。他們很快指出,這並不否定Levitt的論文,並強調由於該數據是如此混亂和不完整,很可能甚至是無法證明或反駁Levitt他們的結論。

7. Incentives
How Levitt failed to potty-train his daughter with her favorite M&M chocolates within three days.

8. Can a 9th grader be bribed to succeed?
Interesting (but costly) experiment again!

觀感:This is the most touching part of the movie and it sort of resonates with the segment on Parenting. But again the authors』 view on parents』 role in a child’s growth is ambiguous.   舉報
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